Slovenia vs Scotland

Saturday, 26 September 2026 at 13:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

37%

Slovenia wins

27%

Draw

36%

Scotland wins

xG Home

1.25

Slovenia

Blowout %

30%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.25

Scotland

Analysis

Our model puts a Slovenia win at 36.6% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.25 to 1.25.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1586 against 1616, a gap of 30 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

2.45

Slovenia

3.05

Draw

2.85

Scotland

Visualisations · generated charts

2026-09-26_Slovenia_vs_Scotland_slide1_9_16 · slide

2026-09-26_Slovenia_vs_Scotland_slide2_9_16 · slide

Published 27 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export