Shrewsbury Town vs Colchester United

Saturday, 26 September 2026 at 14:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

45%

Shrewsbury Town wins

26%

Draw

29%

Colchester United wins

xG Home

1.45

Shrewsbury Town

Blowout %

31%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.11

Colchester United

Analysis

Our model puts a Shrewsbury Town win at 44.6% in this League Two fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.45 to 1.11.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,435 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39% of the time — 549 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Shrewsbury Town are off their season peak

Shrewsbury Town peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1436 today, 64 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Market odds

2.40

Shrewsbury Town

3.35

Draw

2.90

Colchester United

Published 27 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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