Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC
Our model puts a St. Louis CITY SC win at 45% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.44 to 1.76.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,435 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 45.7% of the time — 440 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 3.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price St. Louis CITY SC at 1.83, which implies about 54.6%. Our model has it at 45% — 9.6 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
St. Louis CITY SC are hard to beat
St. Louis CITY SC have gone 16 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.