Iceland vs Estonia
Our model puts an Iceland win at 59.8% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.86 to 0.88.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Iceland at 1.29, which implies about 77.5%. Our model has it at 59.8% — 17.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Iceland carry a rating of 1527 against 1420 for Estonia, a gap of 106 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Iceland's attack should find room against Estonia's defence, by 142 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Estonia are off their season peak
Estonia peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1420 today, 80 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.