Granada vs FC Andorra
Our model puts a Granada win at 63.9% in this Segunda Division fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.12 to 0.93.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,435 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 52.1% of the time — 265 fixtures in that band. That is 7.4 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Granada at 2.15, which implies about 46.5%. Our model has it at 63.9% — 17.4 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
How often they shoot
FC Andorra take 16.6 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Granada collect 3.3 cards a match, on 12.7 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
69.6% of FC Andorra's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 23 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.