Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale
Our model puts a Fleetwood Town win at 58.2% in this League Two fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.79 to 0.89.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,435 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 52.1% of the time — 265 fixtures in that band. That is 7.4 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Rochdale at 3.85, which implies about 26%. Our model has it at 18.6% — 7.4 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Fleetwood Town carry a rating of 1453 against 1347 for Rochdale, a gap of 105 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Fleetwood Town's attack should find room against Rochdale's defence, by 109 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Fleetwood Town are off their season peak
Fleetwood Town peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1453 today, 47 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Rochdale struggles to hit the target: 28.4% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Rochdale manage 7.9 shots a match, against an average of 11.8. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.