Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan
Our model puts a Faroe Islands win at 37.9% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.32 to 1.27.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Faroe Islands at 2.25, which implies about 44.4%. Our model has it at 37.9% — 6.5 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Faroe Islands are off their season peak
Faroe Islands peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1345 today, 155 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.