Czechia vs Croatia

Saturday, 26 September 2026 at 18:45

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

27%

Czechia wins

26%

Draw

47%

Croatia wins

xG Home

1.08

Czechia

Blowout %

21%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.52

Croatia

Analysis

Our model puts a Croatia win at 47.2% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.08 to 1.52.

The ratings gap

Croatia carry a rating of 1751 against 1612 for Czech Republic, a gap of 139 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Croatia's attack should find room against Czechia's defence, by 190 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Market odds

3.30

Czechia

3.35

Draw

2.10

Croatia

Visualisations · generated charts