CF Montréal vs FC Cincinnati

Saturday, 26 September 2026 at 23:30

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

37%

CF Montréal wins

23%

Draw

40%

FC Cincinnati wins

xG Home

1.61

CF Montréal

Blowout %

50%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.69

FC Cincinnati

Analysis

Our model puts a FC Cincinnati win at 39.9% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.61 to 1.69.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,435 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39% of the time — 549 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Market odds

2.60

CF Montréal

3.70

Draw

2.35

FC Cincinnati

Published 27 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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