Ceuta vs Real Sociedad II
Our model puts a Ceuta win at 43.2% in this Segunda Division fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.51 to 1.25.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,435 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39% of the time — 549 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Real Sociedad II at 2.5, which implies about 40%. Our model has it at 31.4% — 8.6 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1500 against 1488, a gap of 12 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
How often they shoot
Ceuta manage 8.7 shots a match, against an average of 11.8. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Behind the defence
50% of the shots on target Ceuta face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.