Canada vs Chile

Saturday, 26 September 2026 at 23:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

41%

Canada wins

27%

Draw

33%

Chile wins

xG Home

1.35

Canada

Blowout %

37%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.18

Chile

Analysis

Our model puts a Canada win at 40.6% in this Int: Friendly fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.35 to 1.18.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Canada at 1.69, which implies about 59.2%. Our model has it at 40.6% — 18.6 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1667 against 1671, a gap of 4 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

1.69

Canada

3.80

Draw

4.90

Chile

Published 27 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export