Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon
Our model puts a Cambridge United win at 57.5% in this League One fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.76 to 0.89.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,435 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 52.1% of the time — 265 fixtures in that band. That is 7.4 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Cambridge United carry a rating of 1536 against 1432 for AFC Wimbledon, a gap of 104 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, AFC Wimbledon's attack will struggle to break down Cambridge United's defence, by 101 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
AFC Wimbledon are off their season peak
AFC Wimbledon peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1432 today, 68 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.