Bulgaria vs Luxembourg
Our model puts a Bulgaria win at 70.4% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.11 to 0.66.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Bulgaria at 2.3, which implies about 43.5%. Our model has it at 70.4% — 26.9 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Bulgaria carry a rating of 1498 against 1356 for Luxembourg, a gap of 142 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Luxembourg are off their season peak
Luxembourg peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1356 today, 144 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 65.3%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.