● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 26 September 2026
Int: UEFA Nations League
Sweden vs Romania
Friday, 25 September 2026 at 18:45
📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.
Win probability
57%
Sweden wins
24%
Draw
19%
Romania wins
xG Home
1.70
Sweden
Blowout %
56%
Dominant win
xG Away
0.87
Romania
Analysis
Our model puts a Sweden win at 56.6% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.7 to 0.87.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Sweden at 1.42, which implies about 70.4%. Our model has it at 56.6% — 13.8 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Sweden's attack should find room against Romania's defence, by 102 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Market odds
1.42
Sweden
4.60
Draw
6.50
Romania
Visualisations · generated charts
Published 26 September 2026 · aleavici-football
Signed export