● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 26 September 2026
Int: UEFA Nations League
Poland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina
Friday, 25 September 2026 at 18:45
📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.
Win probability
63%
Poland wins
22%
Draw
15%
Bosnia-Herzegovina wins
xG Home
1.90
Poland
Blowout %
58%
Dominant win
xG Away
0.80
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Analysis
Our model puts a Poland win at 62.8% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.9 to 0.8.
The ratings gap
Poland carry a rating of 1654 against 1561 for Bosnia and Herzegovina, a gap of 93 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Poland's attack should find room against Bosnia-Herzegovina's defence, by 152 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Market odds
1.57
Poland
3.85
Draw
5.25
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Visualisations · generated charts
Published 26 September 2026 · aleavici-football
Signed export