Italy vs Belgium

Friday, 25 September 2026 at 18:45

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

42%

Italy wins

27%

Draw

31%

Belgium wins

xG Home

1.40

Italy

Blowout %

40%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.17

Belgium

Analysis

Our model puts an Italy win at 42.2% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.4 to 1.17.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1779 against 1802, a gap of 23 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

2.20

Italy

3.45

Draw

3.00

Belgium

Visualisations · generated charts

2026-09-25_Italy_vs_Belgium_slide1_9_16 · slide

2026-09-25_Italy_vs_Belgium_slide2_9_16 · slide

Published 26 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export