Georgia vs Northern Ireland

Friday, 25 September 2026 at 16:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

46%

Georgia wins

26%

Draw

28%

Northern Ireland wins

xG Home

1.48

Georgia

Blowout %

41%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.07

Northern Ireland

Analysis

Our model puts a Georgia win at 46.3% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.48 to 1.07.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Georgia at 1.83, which implies about 54.6%. Our model has it at 46.3% — 8.3 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1540 against 1518, a gap of 22 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

1.83

Georgia

3.35

Draw

4.20

Northern Ireland

Published 26 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export