Australia vs Brazil
Our model puts a Brazil win at 48.8% in this Int: Friendly fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.98 to 1.49.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Brazil at 1.25, which implies about 80%. Our model has it at 48.8% — 31.2 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Brazil carry a rating of 1841 against 1708 for Australia, a gap of 133 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Brazil's attack should find room against Australia's defence, by 118 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.