Armenia vs Latvia

Friday, 25 September 2026 at 16:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

47%

Armenia wins

25%

Draw

28%

Latvia wins

xG Home

1.58

Armenia

Blowout %

45%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.14

Latvia

Analysis

Our model puts an Armenia win at 47.4% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.58 to 1.14.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Armenia at 1.8, which implies about 55.6%. Our model has it at 47.4% — 8.2 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Armenia are off their season peak

Armenia peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1416 today, 84 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Market odds

1.80

Armenia

3.45

Draw

4.20

Latvia

Published 26 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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