Uzbekistan vs Iran
Our model puts an Iran win at 53% in this Int: Friendly fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.95 to 1.63.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Iran at 2.65, which implies about 37.7%. Our model has it at 53% — 15.3 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
IR Iran carry a rating of 1723 against 1594 for Uzbekistan, a gap of 128 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Iran are hard to beat
Iran have gone 7 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Uzbekistan are off their season peak
Uzbekistan peaked at 1658 this season and sit at 1594 today, 64 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.