South Korea vs Ecuador

Thursday, 24 September 2026 at 11:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

49%

South Korea wins

26%

Draw

26%

Ecuador wins

xG Home

1.52

South Korea

Blowout %

44%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.02

Ecuador

Analysis

Our model puts a South Korea win at 48.5% in this Int: Friendly fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.52 to 1.02.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1701 against 1691, a gap of 10 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

South Korea are off their season peak

South Korea peaked at 1754 this season and sit at 1701 today, 53 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Market odds

2.20

South Korea

3.35

Draw

3.25

Ecuador

Published 25 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export