Serbia vs Greece

Thursday, 24 September 2026 at 18:45

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

46%

Serbia wins

26%

Draw

27%

Greece wins

xG Home

1.47

Serbia

Blowout %

45%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.06

Greece

Analysis

Our model puts a Serbia win at 46.3% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.47 to 1.06.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Greece at 2.55, which implies about 39.2%. Our model has it at 27.4% — 11.8 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1659 against 1629, a gap of 30 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

2.65

Serbia

3.20

Draw

2.55

Greece

Published 25 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export