Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia

Thursday, 24 September 2026 at 07:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

33%

Papua New Guinea wins

27%

Draw

40%

New Caledonia wins

xG Home

1.22

Papua New Guinea

Blowout %

45%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.36

New Caledonia

Analysis

Our model puts a New Caledonia win at 40.1% in this Int: Friendly fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.22 to 1.36.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, New Caledonia's attack should find room against Papua New Guinea's defence, by 108 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Papua New Guinea are hard to beat

Papua New Guinea have gone 7 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.

Published 25 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export