Netherlands vs Germany
Our model puts a Netherlands win at 43.8% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.39 to 1.08.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Germany at 2.5, which implies about 40%. Our model has it at 29.3% — 10.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1792 against 1776, a gap of 16 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Netherlands's attack should find room against Germany's defence, by 199 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.