Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland

Thursday, 24 September 2026 at 18:45

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

34%

Kosovo wins

27%

Draw

39%

Republic of Ireland wins

xG Home

1.19

Kosovo

Blowout %

28%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.30

Republic of Ireland

Analysis

Our model puts a Republic of Ireland win at 39% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.19 to 1.3.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Kosovo at 2.4, which implies about 41.7%. Our model has it at 33.9% — 7.8 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Republic of Ireland are hard to beat

Republic of Ireland have gone 8 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.

Market odds

2.40

Kosovo

3.00

Draw

3.05

Republic of Ireland

Published 25 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export