Japan vs Uruguay

Thursday, 24 September 2026 at 10:05

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

48%

Japan wins

26%

Draw

27%

Uruguay wins

xG Home

1.53

Japan

Blowout %

51%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.07

Uruguay

Analysis

Our model puts a Japan win at 47.8% in this Int: Friendly fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.53 to 1.07.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Japan at 1.71, which implies about 58.5%. Our model has it at 47.8% — 10.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Uruguay are off their season peak

Uruguay peaked at 1761 this season and sit at 1714 today, 47 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Market odds

1.71

Japan

3.80

Draw

4.70

Uruguay

Visualisations · generated charts