Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan
Our model puts a Tajikistan win at 37.8% in this Int: Friendly fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.28 to 1.33.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Azerbaijan at 1.8, which implies about 55.6%. Our model has it at 35.7% — 19.9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Tajikistan are on a run
Tajikistan arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 6 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Azerbaijan are off their season peak
Azerbaijan peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1387 today, 113 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.