New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands
Our model puts a New Caledonia win at 64.1% in this Int: Friendly fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.99 to 0.82.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, New Caledonia's attack should find room against Solomon Islands's defence, by 106 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 80.8%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.