Volos NFC vs AEK Athens
Our model puts an AEK Athens win at 59.2% in this Greek Super League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.95 to 1.9.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.6% of the time — 239 fixtures in that band. That is 9 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price AEK Athens at 1.3, which implies about 76.9%. Our model has it at 59.2% — 17.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
AEK Athens carry a rating of 1636 against 1449 for Volos NFC, a gap of 188 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, AEK Athens's attack should find room against Volos NFC's defence, by 152 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
AEK Athens are hard to beat
AEK Athens have gone 11 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Volos NFC are off their season peak
Volos NFC peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1449 today, 51 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Volos NFC collect 3.4 cards a match, on 15 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
27.8% of Volos NFC's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
57.5% of the shots on target Volos NFC face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.