Vitória de Guimaraes vs Moreirense
Our model puts a Vitória de Guimaraes win at 40.6% in this Primeira Liga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.31 to 1.14.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39.6% of the time — 520 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.5%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Vitória de Guimaraes at 1.44, which implies about 69.4%. Our model has it at 40.6% — 28.8 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
How often they shoot
Moreirense manage 9.3 shots a match, against an average of 11.8. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Early or late
36.4% of Moreirense's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 11 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
55.3% of the shots on target Moreirense face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.