Villarreal vs Levante
Our model puts a Villarreal win at 52.5% in this La Liga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.69 to 1.03.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46% of the time — 424 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 3.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Villarreal at 1.53, which implies about 65.4%. Our model has it at 52.5% — 12.9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Villarreal's attack should find room against Levante's defence, by 158 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Villarreal hits the target more often than almost anyone: 42.1% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
33.3% of Villarreal's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 24 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.