São Paulo vs Internacional

Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 00:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

47%

São Paulo wins

25%

Draw

28%

Internacional wins

xG Home

1.63

São Paulo

Blowout %

46%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.21

Internacional

Analysis

Our model puts a São Paulo win at 46.8% in this Brasileirao fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.63 to 1.21.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,255 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 45.9% of the time — 392 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 3.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1490 against 1493, a gap of 4 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

1.91

São Paulo

3.45

Draw

4.00

Internacional

Published 20 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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