OFI CRETE vs Asteras Tripoli
Our model puts an OFI CRETE win at 46.4% in this Greek Super League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.44 to 1.02.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46% of the time — 424 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 3.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1524 against 1501, a gap of 23 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
OFI CRETE are on a run
OFI CRETE arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 3 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Finding the target
OFI CRETE struggles to hit the target: 24.6% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
25% of OFI CRETE's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 12 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.