Nice vs Lille
Our model puts a Lille win at 55.2% in this Ligue 1 fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1 to 1.78.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.6% of the time — 239 fixtures in that band. That is 9 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Lille at 2.15, which implies about 46.5%. Our model has it at 55.2% — 8.7 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Lille carry a rating of 1734 against 1582 for Nice, a gap of 152 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Nice's attack will struggle to break down Lille's defence, by 136 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Nice struggles to hit the target: 27.7% of their shots are on goal over their last matches; Lille hits the target more often than almost anyone: 45.1% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
85.7% of Nice's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 7 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
85.7% of the shots on target Lille face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.