NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles
Our model puts a NEC Nijmegen win at 45.4% in this Eredivisie fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.72 to 1.37.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46% of the time — 424 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 3.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, NEC Nijmegen's attack should find room against Go Ahead Eagles's defence, by 137 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Go Ahead Eagles hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.5% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.