Monterrey vs Cruz Azul
Our model puts a Monterrey win at 40.9% in this Liga MX fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.41 to 1.24.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,255 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 40.9% of the time — 479 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.5%, so the two are within 0.4 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1508 against 1527, a gap of 18 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Cruz Azul are on a run
Cruz Azul arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 3 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.