Leganés vs Granada
Our model puts a Leganés win at 53.4% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.62 to 0.93.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46% of the time — 424 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 3.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price the draw at 3.15, which implies about 31.7%. Our model has it at 24.9% — 6.8 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Granada collect 3.2 cards a match, on 12.8 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
71.4% of Leganés's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 7 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.