● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 20 September 2026
Liga Profesional Argentina
Instituto (Córdoba) vs Talleres (Córdoba)
Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 00:15
📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.
Win probability
68%
Instituto (Córdoba) wins
19%
Draw
14%
Talleres (Córdoba) wins
xG Home
2.33
Instituto (Córdoba)
Blowout %
49%
Dominant win
xG Away
0.94
Talleres (Córdoba)
Analysis
Our model puts an Instituto (Córdoba) win at 67.6% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.33 to 0.94.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,255 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 71% of the time — 107 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.3%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Published 20 September 2026 · aleavici-football
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