Hellas Verona vs Vicenza
Our model puts a Hellas Verona win at 63.6% in this Serie B fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.08 to 0.92.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.6% of the time — 239 fixtures in that band. That is 9 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Hellas Verona at 1.87, which implies about 53.5%. Our model has it at 63.6% — 10.1 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Hellas Verona carry a rating of 1516 against 1418 for Vicenza, a gap of 98 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Vicenza are off their season peak
Vicenza peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1418 today, 82 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Hellas Verona collect 3.1 cards a match, on 15.6 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Behind the defence
75.5% of the shots on target Vicenza face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.