Grêmio vs Palmeiras

Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 14:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

27%

Grêmio wins

23%

Draw

50%

Palmeiras wins

xG Home

1.25

Grêmio

Blowout %

27%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.79

Palmeiras

Analysis

Our model puts a Palmeiras win at 49.7% in this Brasileirao fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.25 to 1.79.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46% of the time — 424 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 3.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Market odds

3.95

Grêmio

3.65

Draw

1.87

Palmeiras

Published 21 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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