Goztepe vs Caykur Rizespor

Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 17:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

43%

Goztepe wins

25%

Draw

32%

Caykur Rizespor wins

xG Home

1.53

Goztepe

Blowout %

36%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.28

Caykur Rizespor

Analysis

Our model puts a Goztepe win at 42.9% in this Süper Lig fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.53 to 1.28.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39.6% of the time — 520 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.5%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1520 against 1521, a gap of 1 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 21 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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