Fulham vs Manchester United
Our model puts a Manchester United win at 43.4% in this Premier League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.25 to 1.52.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39.6% of the time — 520 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.5%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Manchester United at 2.0, which implies about 50%. Our model has it at 43.4% — 6.6 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Manchester United's attack should find room against Fulham's defence, by 130 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Fulham struggles to hit the target: 25.1% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Fulham take 15.2 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.