Fiorentina vs Napoli
Our model puts a Napoli win at 42.6% in this Serie A fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.27 to 1.51.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39.6% of the time — 520 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.5%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Napoli carry a rating of 1776 against 1677 for Fiorentina, a gap of 99 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Napoli's attack should find room against Fiorentina's defence, by 150 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Napoli struggles to hit the target: 28.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Behind the defence
78.9% of the shots on target Napoli face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.