Fenerbahce vs Eyupspor
Our model puts a Fenerbahce win at 78.8% in this Süper Lig fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.61 to 0.62.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 75% and 85% came in 83% of the time — 47 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 79.2%, so the two are within 3.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Fenerbahce carry a rating of 1718 against 1512 for Eyupspor, a gap of 205 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Fenerbahce's attack should find room against Eyupspor's defence, by 184 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Fenerbahce take 17.8 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Fenerbahce collect 3.3 cards a match, on 12.1 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
41.2% of Eyupspor's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 17 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 76.9%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.