Estrela vs Académico de Viseu
Our model puts an Estrela win at 47.4% in this Primeira Liga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.6 to 1.16.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46% of the time — 424 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 3.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Estrela are hard to beat
Estrela have gone 8 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Estrela collect 3.2 cards a match, on 13 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.