Estoril vs Casa Pia
Our model puts an Estoril win at 65.9% in this Primeira Liga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.2 to 0.91.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 72.6% of the time — 117 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.3%, so the two are within 3.4 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Estoril at 1.69, which implies about 59.2%. Our model has it at 65.9% — 6.7 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Finding the target
Casa Pia struggles to hit the target: 26.3% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Casa Pia manage 9.8 shots a match, against an average of 11.8. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Behind the defence
54.7% of the shots on target Casa Pia face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.