Erzurum BB vs Samsunspor
Our model puts a Samsunspor win at 48.5% in this Süper Lig fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.14 to 1.63.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46% of the time — 424 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 3.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Samsunspor carry a rating of 1584 against 1471 for Erzurum BB, a gap of 112 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Samsunspor's attack should find room against Erzurum BB's defence, by 118 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.