Djurgården vs IF Elfsborg

Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 12:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

64%

Djurgården wins

20%

Draw

17%

IF Elfsborg wins

xG Home

2.26

Djurgården

Blowout %

54%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.04

IF Elfsborg

Analysis

Our model puts a Djurgården win at 63.9% in this Swedish Allsvenskan fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.26 to 1.04.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.6% of the time — 239 fixtures in that band. That is 9 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.

Market odds

1.53

Djurgården

4.50

Draw

5.50

IF Elfsborg

Published 21 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export