Colorado Rapids vs Seattle Sounders FC
Our model puts a Colorado Rapids win at 63.2% in this MLS fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.19 to 1.01.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,255 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.4% of the time — 224 fixtures in that band. That is 9.2 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Seattle Sounders FC at 3.65, which implies about 27.4%. Our model has it at 16.8% — 10.6 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1491 against 1472, a gap of 19 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.