Ceuta vs Real Valladolid
Our model puts a Ceuta win at 45.1% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.54 to 1.2.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46% of the time — 424 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 3.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Real Valladolid at 2.45, which implies about 40.8%. Our model has it at 29.6% — 11.2 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
How often they shoot
Ceuta manage 9 shots a match, against an average of 11.8. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Behind the defence
51.7% of the shots on target Ceuta face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.